The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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By tweaking the original models to increase availability of fossil fuels, making biocapacity of our planet last a little longer and ignoring the potential for runaway global warming for now, he manages to push the inflection point for us to postwhich is his cut-off date. I plan to use this as a basic text for an advanced high school social science course called “Global Futures”.

And what does our future look like? I predict that by a new paradigm will be strongly emergent. I am quite hopeful that because of this politicians will act faster than predicted by Rander’s book.

But even though that figure represented the lowest growth rate since — and a marked slowdown from the spending increase of 5. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

The migrants will be motivated by both the pull of better employment opportunities and social services and the push of displacement caused by rural environmental and economic degradation. Unlike the original book The Limits of Growth from – scenario forecasting – this attempts at trend forecasting using a wealth of data that wasn’t available when the original book was written.

You can delete or disable these cookies in your web browser if you wish but then our site may not work correctly. Jun 30, Hamilton Carvalho rated it it was amazing.

We will be continually engaged in adjusting to new emergencies of weather.

| A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers

Like the debate over security, Randers’ world so praising of China will end up with the worst of both: Parts of the slum may, for instance, specialize in recycling, as we can observe in some of the large Indian cities today, while other parts may do intensive agriculture.


The key actors in this story are small, typically just a few millimetres. It has done so twice, the last time at the tip of one of its myriad outer twigs. In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an “Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse,” a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take.

Finally, and perhaps this is only a minor gripe, some of the material written in shaded boxes by other authors recruited to round out Randers’ work were a bit daffy.

Lists with This Book. And this is more, per unit of grain equivalent, than the poor can pay. Contact us Information provided by: There is also mounting evidence of exponential melting of ice that makes a strong case for runaway climate change that would also derail his neat straight line projections. Want to Read Currently Reading Read. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth.

However, even those will be affected by climate change, such that they will lose their biodiversity, resilience, and attractiveness to humans.

But this korgen might not come as we expect. The author’s name may not ring a bell, but perhaps you have heard of, or even read “The Limits to Growth” by the Club of Rome Randers comes across as a very competent computer modeller and his forecasts have an air of reliability.

Within the next forty years an event will take place that will alter not just the jorhen of our species but the evolution of life itself. These individual contributions are woven into the larger story to provide comparison with the author’s predictions. There are no discussion topics on this book yet. In the bookJorgen Randers, one of the co-authors of The Limits to Growthissues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years.

Despite the Fukushima reactor disaster in springthe prevailing mood in many countries in autumn remained broadly supportive of some kind of nuclear renaissance. The disappointing truth is that his model apparently writes out the possibility of unforeseen state shifts like sudden catastrophic collapses in ecosystem service delivery, financial markets, nuclear war, or the 22052 of abundant new gas reserves some of which are more likely than others.


Did we really need the following sentence? Jorgej like the United States will stagnate.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years by Jørgen Randers

Population will stabilise after adding a mere billion or 2 or 3? And, especially, while we dramatically curtail climate gas emissions.

Hardcoverpages. Productivity will grow, but encounter obstacles. The book is a very realistic and yet optimistic about the future of the earth. Even though it’s gloomy reading, this is a book should be compulsory reading for every CEO, politician and people with a genuine wish to understand a chaotic and fast changing world. Aug 23, Briankiwi rated it it was amazing.

And what does our future look like? He does waffle on a lot, and talks about other books he has written all the time, in case you want to buy them too.

Randers and his colleagues present a portrait of the future that is radically different from today, but not entirely bleak: Although I did not enjoy nor appreciate much of Randers insights on our future, the snippets of stories selected by the author were fantastic.

Jorgn references UN recommendations [2] and gives 20 pieces of advice concerning individual behavior. Roughly million urban dwellers are regarded as income poor.

The latest assessment, published inconcluded that the global average surface temperature is most likely to increase by 2. These exerpts have the effect of muddying the book’s message, somewhat, and the author seems to pick and choose bits from them that support his case. This article needs additional citations for verification.

I must confess that I’ve read this book in a rather superficial way. The result is modestly interesting – Randers predicts no reduction of carbon emissions until peak oil, increasing use of renewable energy and biofuels, stable and then declining global population, China’s emerging hegemony, rising GDP in the developing world, increasing starvation and malnutrition, etc.